Politics 2006

Maine Governor: John Baldacci

Governor John Baldacci faced a tough reelection environment. A majority of voters said Maine's direction was "wrong." Baldacci "favorables" never grew higher than the low 50's; vote support never above the low 40's. He faced three publicly financed opponents who received a combined $3.2 million against him.

FrederickPolls worked with the Governor intensely from late 2004 through election 2006 to identify themes, messages, and target groups to insure victory in a competitive four-way race. Polls and focus groups were used to shape initiatives, craft major speeches, and focus voter attention on Baldacci strengths and accomplishments and away from weaknesses.

FINAL: John Baldacci 39%, Chandler Woodcock (R) 30%, Barbara Merrill (I) 22%, Pat LaMarche (Green) 9%

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Colorado 7th Congressional District: Ed Perlmutter

Colorado Congressional District 7 was a top five "Red-to-Blue" DCCC target with a tough primary against Peggy Lamm and a general election against a young, attractive, "brilliant policy wonk" in Rick O'Donnell.

Primary polling showed Perlmutter trailing which drove a crucial tactical decision to air the first attack ads.

PRIMARY FINAL: Ed Perlmutter, 53%, Peggy Lamm 38%.

General election was typical mutual attack exchanges with much spending from national party committees. Key tactic was inoculation TV by Perlmutter to blunt the impact of anti-Perlmutter attacks that polling showed would be devastating.

Big track poll movement came when Perlmutter camp ran back-to-back focus group-tested ads about O'Donnell's mandatory national service plan for 17-year-old boys and his proclamation in favor of a 75,000 troop surge in Iraq.

FINAL: Ed Perlmutter 55%, Rick O'Donnell 41%.

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West Virginia 1st Congressional District: Alan Mollohan

Congressman Mollohan was the Democrats' poster-boy for Washington corruption. Skillful right-wing manipulation prompted a media frenzy directed toward Mollohan for his paper real estate investment gains made in partnership with former staff members now heading Federal-funded local non-profits. This scandal forced his resignation from the Ethics Committee in early summer 2006.

Mollohan was assumed to be the Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent because of both these ethics charges and the 2004 Swift Boat campaign financers funding of over $1 million in attack ads, mailers and phone calls in early September.

Benchmark polling led to the tactic of a full personal financial document release by Mollohan as well as development of "response attacks" on opponent Chris Wakim's credibility. Poll-driven advice to respond early, quickly, directly and in-kind paid off. September track polls showed Mollohan still leading comfortably and despite an empty Mollohan campaign war chest, the anti-Mollohan 527 pulled out in late September followed by an NRCC pull-out in mid-October.

FINAL: Alan Mollohan 64%, Chris Wakim 36% (initial "vote-to-reelect" = 38%).

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Florida Attorney General Candidate: Skip Campbell

Florida remains a "lean-Republican" state with a popular outgoing GOP Governor in Jeb Bush. As a down-ticket Democrat candidate, Skip Campbell had to overcome several factors: "invisible" level name recognition, a gubernatorial "top-of-ticket" mate who ran seven points behind popular Republican candidate Charlie Crist and a nuisance Primary opponent who forced the campaign to spend a significant amount of the campaign treasury to avoid embarrassment.

Benchmark polling directed the campaign to highlight State Senator/successful trial attorney Skip Campbell's "up-by-his-bootstraps" personal story and his cultural conservative values in its introductory TV ad.

Track polling showed the large number of undecideds best motivated by learning of the Republican opponent's Washington lobbyist ties to Jack Abramoff and his self-interest Legislative dealings as a Congressman.

In the end, being outspent by nearly a million dollars, effectively attacked by a female Democrat on a "Scarlet Letter" adoption bill and running with a weak Democratic ticket defeated Skip.

FINAL: Bill McCollum 53%, Skip Campbell 47%.

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